Mass return of migrants, population growth, and the increasing number of university graduates is putting greater pressure on Afghanistan’s labor market while according to experts, the country’s capacity to create jobs and grow its economy is not aligned with the growing workforce. They say that if this trend continues, pressure on the labor market will increase, along with the risk of rising poverty and unemployment.
The International Organization for Migration (IOM) considers the mass return of migrants in recent years a factor putting additional pressure on job opportunities and livelihoods. The agency says many young returnees are now entering a labor market where the formal sector has limited capacity to provide suitable jobs with appropriate incomes and working conditions.
In an email to Salam Watandar, the IOM said, “Nearly 5.9 million people have returned over more than two years, equivalent to a population increase of around 10 to 12 percent of Afghanistan’s total population. Youth are particularly affected by this situation because they are entering a labor market where formal job opportunities are limited, private-sector activity has declined, and competition for jobs is very high.”
Meanwhile, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has provided figures for returnees from Iran and Pakistan, with a slight difference and for a more specific period. The agency stated,
“From January 2025 to July 25, 2026, a total of 3,933,142 people returned to Afghanistan from Iran and Pakistan. The United Nations estimates that around 2.7 million people will return from Iran and Pakistan to Afghanistan by the end of this year. Based on the available evidence, the continued mass return of migrants is likely to put further pressure on local labor markets.”
Labor market capacity; more workers than the market can absorb
The number of job seekers has increased, while experts say the labor market’s capacity to absorb workers has not grown proportionately. Iraj Faqiri, an economic expert, says,
“With the return of migrants and the increase in the workforce, we will face an economic gap. We can address this over time through long-term planning, strengthening the country’s infrastructure, creating suitable jobs, and encouraging domestic investors to invest in industry and infrastructure development. Otherwise, we will face an economic crisis.”
Mohammad Sharaf, head of the research department at Kardan University, says the capacity of the labor market has not changed, while the number of job seekers has increased. He says this could lead to an increase in the labor supply, more informal jobs, and lower wages.
“Given the limited job opportunities, more people are looking for work. We have a large labor supply, but the market’s capacity has remained the same. In addition, the return of migrants has increased the number of people entering the informal labor market and created greater density in the labor market, which has led to lower wages,” he says.
Jawhar Masoudi, another economic expert and university lecturer, also considers the growing labor supply to be one of the factors contributing to intensifying poverty and reducing incomes.
“There is a large supply of labor in the market. Youth cannot find jobs, and when they do find work, their incomes are very low, and they cannot meet their daily needs. This situation shows that poverty has increased significantly and is continuing to rise. On the one hand, we have the return of migrants, and on the other, a large number of university graduates. If this situation continues, we will witness poverty, lower incomes, and a brain drain,” he says.
University graduates; the workforce remains unabsorbed by the labor market
An independent survey conducted by Salam Watandar in July 2026, involving 1,509 graduates of public and private universities in 25 provinces, found that 65.9 percent of participants were unemployed, while only 34.1 percent were employed.
Mohammad Sharif Haidari, head of the research department at Kateb University, says the limited availability of suitable, quality job opportunities has pushed more youth into informal employment. According to him, these jobs usually offer low incomes and limited job security.
“The main problem is the increase in informal jobs. The decline in suitable, quality job opportunities and the expansion of informal employment have become a challenge. These jobs often involve low incomes, temporary work, daily wages, no formal employment documents, and a lack of job security. Another serious problem is that this situation may harm youth socially and psychologically,” he adds.
Abdul Basir Taraki, an economic expert, also says that the lack of job opportunities is not the only problem facing the labor market and points to structural barriers in the economy. He explains,
“Our youth are losing their lives while trying to flee because of unemployment and poverty. Youth who graduate from universities also face difficulties because there are no jobs. There are several reasons for this. The first one is recognition. Youth are not investing because they are afraid. We do not have enough electricity, which creates problems for production and industry. In the agricultural sector, we do not have improved seeds, so we cannot compete properly with the rest of the world. The facilities that farmers need have not been provided.”
Millions more youth to enter the labor market
Pressure on the labor market is not limited to returning migrants and university graduates. A 2023 World Bank report estimates that an additional 1.7 million young Afghans aged 15 to 29 are expected to enter Afghanistan’s labor market by 2030.
However, the latest available national figures on unemployed youth aged 19 to 29 date back to the solar year 1399 (2020–2021). Based on those figures, 493,624 youth in this age group were unemployed. No similar or comparable national figures have been published since then.
The World Bank’s 2023 report also shows that Afghanistan’s unemployment rate has increased compared with the period before the political changes in 2021, and nearly one in four youth aged 15 to 29 was unemployed in 2023.
Is economic growth aligned with workforce growth?
The World Bank estimates that Afghanistan’s economy grew by 4.3 percent in 2025, while also saying that rapid population growth and the mass return of migrants have increased pressure on the labor market. According to the agency, population growth reached 8.6 percent in 2025, while per capita income declined by about 4 percent.
Zia Shefaie, another economic expert, says economic growth of three to four percent is not enough to answer the needs of a growing population and create enough job opportunities.
“Population growth is not aligned with economic growth. The population is growing faster, and people will find jobs when Afghanistan’s economy grows. Afghanistan’s economy is small and is not enough to meet the needs of a growing population or create enough jobs,” he says.
Government committed to creating more job opportunities
On the other hand, government officials say that different economic sectors of the country have the capacity to create job opportunities for youth. Mohammad Seddiq Tawhidi, spokesperson for the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs, says,
“Youth are working in various sectors, including agriculture and livestock, technology, construction, trade, and freelance businesses. Economic activity and demand in the labor market have increased recently, and youth have increasingly turned to trade, transportation, and information technology.”
In response to the growing number of job seekers, the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs previously announced plans to create nearly 1.5 million jobs over the next five years. According to the ministry, 15 government agencies committed to creating 1,443,584 job opportunities at the National Labor Conference. The Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs said it would follow up with the relevant agencies on the implementation of these commitments and share the results with the public.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Economy says that the agriculture, industry, mining, construction, trade, and services sectors have the capacity to create job opportunities for youth. Abdul Rahman Habib, spokesperson for the Ministry of Economy, says the ministry is focusing on creating more job opportunities, particularly for migrants who have returned from other countries
“The country’s existing infrastructure in agriculture and livestock, crop processing, business, industry, mining, construction, transit, trade, and services has the capacity to create job opportunities. The ministry is focusing more on making use of the capacities of returning migrants, strengthening the private sector, encouraging investment, expanding domestic production and exports, developing regional markets, promoting entrepreneurship, and building the capacity of youth,” he adds.
Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat (DABS), while confirming the severe shortage of electricity, says it has 17 projects underway to address the problem. Mohammad Sadeq Haqparast, spokesperson for Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat (DABS), says
“We need 4,000 megawatts of electricity, but we currently have only 750 megawatts. To address the electricity shortage, we have 17 projects underway. By completing these projects, job opportunities will be provided to thousands of citizens,” he adds.
Labor market under pressure from a growing workforce
The data showing growing pressure on Afghanistan’s labor market comes as experts say that the increasing number of job seekers, along with the labor market’s limited capacity to absorb workforce, are reasons for pressure on incomes and job quality. They warn that if the growing workforce is not aligned by increased investment and create proportionate job opportunities, economic pressure on households and youth will increase.
Zia Shefaie also says, “If this trend continues, which will probably happen, the population will continue to grow without planning, and poverty and unemployment will increase.”
Experts say the level of investment and the economy’s ability to create jobs will determine what path pressure on the labor market and incomes will take in the future.
Reporter: Nilofar Mohammadi
