Afghanistan loses billions of dollars every year because of natural disasters and the consequences of climate change. Forecasts suggest that rainfall and snowfall may increase in the coming months, which could benefit the country’s water resources and agriculture. However, experts warn that without proper preparation, this increased precipitation could cause floods, avalanches, landslides, and serious loss of life and economic damage.
Afghanistan, with its mountains, irregular river basins, vulnerable infrastructure, and livelihoods that depend on natural resources, is highly vulnerable to climate change. Under these conditions, the possibility of a strong El Niño in 2026–2027 has drawn the attention of experts in water resources, the environment, agriculture, and disaster management to its possible consequences for the country.
In an interview with Salam Watandar, Najibullah Yousufi, Deputy Head of Climate Change, Energy and Environment at the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), says that Afghanistan faces annual losses estimated at $2 billion to $5 billion due to natural disasters and climate change. He adds that at least 19 provinces experienced drought last year, and in some areas, water shortages forced people to leave their villages.
Yousufi also refers to a UNDP report examining Afghanistan’s environmental situation, including water, energy, waste management, health, and education. He said that the overall picture of the country’s situation is concerning.
According to him, one of the main factors contributing to Afghanistan’s vulnerability is its dependence on mountain snow and glaciers for water. When less snow falls or melts earlier than usual, less water is available when it is needed for agriculture and people. Heavy rain can also lead to floods rather than help replenish water resources, especially when it falls on eroded soil and hillsides with little plant cover.
“When less snow falls and glaciers melt earlier, eroded soil may not be able to absorb rainfall. As a result, severe floods can occur from March to June (Hamal to Jawza), leaving little or no water available during the season when it is most needed,” he says.
He also considers climate change, a lack of water storage infrastructure, and uninformed water use as major causes of Afghanistan’s water crisis. He adds that the excessive use of groundwater, particularly through solar-powered pumps, has raised further concerns. Although these pumps make water easier to access, they can cause groundwater levels to fall further without proper control and management.
Yousufi emphasizes the importance of nature-based solutions, soil restoration, reforestation, planting saplings, and developing better infrastructure for water storage and management. He also highlights the need to support the livelihoods of farming families, especially women, and promote improved farming methods and the use of resistant seeds as part of climate change adaptation.
What is El Niño, and why is it drawing experts’ attention this year?
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This warming can change weather patterns, including rainfall and temperature, in different parts of the world. However, its impacts vary from one region to another and depend on other climate factors.
Najibullah Sadid, a water and environmental expert, explained this phenomenon during a webinar organized by the Afghanistan Water and Environment Professionals Network in cooperation with the Mirab organization.
According to him, trade winds near the equator normally blow warm surface water toward the western Pacific. During El Niño, these winds weaken, allowing warm water to spread toward the central and eastern Pacific. This change affects the atmosphere and can alter rainfall patterns in different regions.
In contrast, La Niña is accompanied by stronger trade winds and cooler surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific.
He adds that Pacific Ocean temperatures had been rising since April. Forecasts discussed during the webinar suggested that El Niño would likely intensify in the coming months. According to these forecasts, it could continue until late winter or early spring and reach a very strong level. However, he emphasizes that:
“No two El Niño events are exactly alike,” he says.
The experience of past periods can help identify possible scenarios, but it does not guarantee that the same consequences will occur again. The possibility of a strong El Niño should be taken seriously, but its effects on Afghanistan cannot be known with certainty in advance.
Rainfall forecasts; a possible opportunity, not a guarantee
Seasonal forecasts discussed during the webinar suggested that rainfall could increase in parts of Afghanistan in November. The same models indicated that rainfall might decrease slightly in December and January before increasing again in February and March.
However, seasonal forecasts are not certain. They can change as new weather information becomes available.
Abdul Basit Rahmani, a disaster management expert and head of the Chashma-Sar platform, refers to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and says that parts of northern, southern, and western Afghanistan had received less rainfall than average during the period studied, while some eastern and central areas had experienced better conditions.
“These differences are important. More rain could help areas affected by dry conditions compensate for the lack of rainfall. However, in places where the soil is already wet or the land is at risk of landslides, more rain could increase the danger,” he adds.
Najibullah Sadid, a water and environmental expert, also says that some past El Niño events have been associated with increased rainfall in parts of Western and Central Asia. However, this does not mean that all of Afghanistan’s river basins will receive the same amount of rainfall.
“In addition to the amount of rainfall, its timing and intensity, whether precipitation falls as rain or snow, and the condition of the soil and rivers all determine whether the water helps replenish the country’s water reserves or causes damage,” he says.
Agriculture; the possibility of improved crops and the continued risk of food insecurity
Agriculture and livestock farming support the livelihoods of a large part of Afghanistan’s population. For this reason, winter rain and snow can be extremely important.
Shoaib Saboori, a researcher in water and agriculture, explains the link between rainfall and crop production by referring to examples from previous years.
According to him, rainfall in 2008 was about 100 millimeters. Drought affected several areas, reducing crop production and putting greater pressure on farming families. In 2019, rainfall exceeded 300 millimeters, and wheat production reached about five million tonnes. Even then, the harvest was not enough to meet the country’s total needs.
He adds that studies presented during the discussions showed that the agricultural situation was better in more than 80 percent of Afghanistan’s areas during El Niño periods than under certain other climate conditions.
“More moisture in some areas can create opportunities for rain-fed farming and help pastures grow. However, more rain does not guarantee larger harvests. Floods, irregular rainfall distribution, damaged irrigation canals, and damage to farmland can reduce these opportunities,” he says.
Shah Jahan Sadeqi, another researcher in water management and the environment, also emphasizes that the link between rainfall and food security is more complicated than a direct relationship between rainfall and agricultural production.
According to him, agricultural production is affected not only by weather conditions but also by resource management, production costs, market supply, and food prices.
“Food prices, market rates, and the level of food supplies are also important factors that must be considered,” he adds.
Afghanistan still depends on imported grain to meet domestic demand. Shoaib Saboori, a researcher in water and agriculture, estimates that the country needs more than five million tonnes of wheat and other grains each year. He says that even a good farming season does not guarantee that Afghanistan will become fully self-sufficient.
The return of large numbers of migrants could increase demand for food. He therefore recommends planning grain imports in advance and holding talks with exporting countries, including Kazakhstan and Russia, before significant changes in market prices occur.
Shah Jahan Sadeqi also warns that increased moisture in some areas, especially in eastern and northeastern Afghanistan, could pave the way for the spread of crop diseases and pests.
“Monitoring pests, preparing to manage plant diseases, choosing suitable land, and planning which crops to grow on irrigated and rain-fed land are measures that can help reduce these risks,” he adds.
Proper storage after harvest is also important. Even if a crop is produced during a favorable season, poor storage can lead to losses, and the opportunity to improve food security may be lost. Therefore, preparation must continue at every stage, from planning and caring for crops to storing the harvest.
Water resources; why is a snowy winter important?
Winter snowfall in Afghanistan’s mountains plays an important role in supplying water during spring and summer. As the snow melts gradually, it provides water for agriculture and other needs. Therefore, increased snow reserves could help improve water resources if the snow melts at the right time and the water is managed properly.
Najibullah Sadid, a water and environmental expert, says that water levels in some major dams, including Kajaki and Salma, were low. He explains that rainfall and snowfall during autumn and winter could help increase the amount of water stored in these dams.
He also highlights the importance of autumn weather for farming. Some crops, including saffron in Herat, need specific temperature and moisture conditions. For this reason, the effects of increased rainfall must be assessed according to the needs of each crop and region.
However, more snowfall alone will not solve Afghanistan’s water problems. If water is not stored at the right time, water transfer pathways are vulnerable, or groundwater extraction continues without proper management, increased rainfall may not turn into a sustainable benefit.
Better management of river basins, soil protection, improved irrigation methods, and monitoring groundwater extraction are measures that can help ensure the more effective use of water resources.
The risks of more rain; floods, avalanches, and landslides
Abdul Basit Rahmani, warns that El Niño does not mean a disaster will definitely happen. However, it may create conditions that increase the risk of floods, avalanches, and landslides.
Rain falling on accumulated snow, especially in mountainous areas, can cause water to flow more quickly and increase the risk of avalanches and landslides. In other regions, heavy rainfall can intensify flash floods.
In his review of disasters between 2009 and 2024, he refers to past avalanches and floods, including events during El Niño periods that caused deaths and widespread damage. These examples show that weather conditions must be considered alongside the condition of roads, buildings, and hillsides, as well as the capacity of disaster management systems.
According to him, narrow and vulnerable roads, weak systems for predicting avalanches and landslides, and difficulties in warning people in remote villages all increase the risks. In such areas, official warnings cannot prevent deaths if they do not reach people in time or are not delivered in a language they understand.
Rahmani also emphasizes the difficult situation facing returning migrants. Figures presented during the webinar indicated that about six million people had returned to Afghanistan since September 2023. Some of these families lack proper shelter, heating facilities, and access to basic services. In the event of heavy rain, snowfall, or a cold wave, their situation could become even worse.
Sadeqi also emphasizes the need to identify areas at risk of flooding and ensure that warnings reach people before disasters occur.
“If people are informed about the danger in advance, they will have the opportunity to move their families, livestock, and belongings to safe places. This is especially important in villages where people have limited time or facilities to evacuate or access help,” he says.
Practical preparation; from local warnings to better water management
Experts believe that preparations should begin before the rainy and snowy seasons start. Clearing drains and canals, checking water channels, identifying vulnerable areas, preparing snow-clearing equipment for mountain passes, and checking the condition of river basins are among the measures that can help reduce risks.
Strengthening early-warning systems is also important. Sadeqi recommends sharing information about possible dangers through radio stations, mosques, and village councils.
Rahmani emphasizes the use of local networks, text messages, and other communication tools, alongside accurate location data and clear indexes of areas at risk. The main goal is to ensure that warnings arrive on time, are easy to understand, and are proportionate to local risks. A warning that arrives too late or is difficult to understand may have limited effect, even if the information is technically correct.
In agriculture, farmers need reliable information about planting times, soil moisture, crop water needs, and possible pest outbreaks.
For water management, it is essential to monitor snow reserves, rivers, and groundwater, while planning how to store and use water effectively.
In addition, planning should include preparing for changes in food prices and possible disruptions in grain markets.
International organizations’ perspectives; forecasts alongside uncertainty
International assessments are consistent with Afghan experts’ warnings about the need to prepare for possible climate risks.
In an update published on September 3, 2026, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported the possibility that El Niño could persist and intensify in the coming months.
The organization warned that a strong El Niño could change rainfall and temperature patterns in different parts of the world. However, the strength of El Niño alone cannot determine how severely a particular country or region will be affected. For this reason, regional forecasts and the latest weather information are important for making decisions.
Reports from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) also emphasize that weather conditions are one of the effective factors influencing crop production and food security. The need to import grain, the cost of producing and transporting food, and the economic situation of households all affect people’s access to food, along with rainfall and harvest levels.
Similarly, assessments by the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank on climate risks in Afghanistan emphasize the country’s vulnerability to natural hazards, as well as the need for investment in infrastructure, natural resource management, and adaptive capacity.
The message from these assessments is clear: weather forecasts alone are not enough. Reducing risks requires proper planning and practical measures.
Preparing today to reduce losses tomorrow
The experts’ views show that El Niño should be seen neither as a certain disaster nor as a guarantee of more water and increased agricultural production.
This phenomenon may increase the likelihood of changes in rainfall and temperature patterns, but its actual consequences for Afghanistan will depend on the situation in each region, the timing and intensity of rainfall, the amount of stored water and snow, the condition of infrastructure, and the level of preparedness.
If rainfall increases, will Afghanistan be able to store and use the water effectively? If heavy rain occurs, will people in high-risk areas receive warnings in time? And if some areas continue to face water shortages, will farmers and families who depend on water resources have alternative solutions?
The answers to these questions depend on regular monitoring of scientific forecasts, cooperation among responsible organizations, accurate public information, and practical measures.
Protecting soil and vegetation cover, managing water resources, strengthening infrastructure, preparing for floods and avalanches, and planning for food security must all be addressed at the same time.
For Afghanistan, El Niño could create an opportunity to improve water resources and agriculture. However, this opportunity will turn into sustainable benefits only if it is accompanied by proper management.
Today’s awareness can be part of tomorrow’s security, provided that scientific forecasts are turned into decisions and practical preparations before disasters occur.
Reporter: Nasir Keshawarz
A report from the “Maseer Sabz” program
References:
- (WMO) . El Niño/La Niña Update: August 2026 (https://wmo.int/resources/publication-series/el-ninola-nina-updates/august-2026)
- (FAO). Afghanistan: GIEWS Country Brief، (https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=AFG)
- (ADB and World Bank). Climate Risk Country Profile: Afghanistan. (https://www.adb.org/publications/climate-risk-country-profile-afghanistan)
- Afghanistan — Climate Change Knowledge Portal (https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/afghanistan)
- (UNDP). Adapting to a Changing Climate. (https://www.undp.org/afghanistan/stories/adapting-changing-climate)
- (WMO). El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027،. (https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027)
