MONITORING (SW) – The bipartisan experts group has recommended the United States should urgently re-open talks with the Taliban to delay a full withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan beyond the May 1 deadline agreed to by the Trump administration.
After months of studying potential pathways to peace, the group said in its report that sticking to the deadline, without first achieving a decline in violence and progress in peace talks, could lead to a collapse of the Afghan state and a resumption of civil war. It also noted that if the Taliban don’t accept a delay beyond May in completing the withdrawal of foreign troops, the militants might abandon the nascent peace process.
“The overall strategy that the group is proposing, however, depends on the U.S. negotiating team making clear to the Taliban that they have not fulfilled the conditions in the Doha agreement under which a U.S. withdrawal can take place,” the report said. It was referring to the deal struck in Doha, Qatar, last February that raised hopes of concluding America’s longest war, which in October will mark its 20th year.
According to the Star and Stripes report, the recommendation, part of a broader proposed strategy, offers a possible way forward for a Biden administration which, like its predecessor, sees no military solution in Afghanistan but seems more doubtful of the Taliban’s commitment to a negotiated peace.
It said although the administration is not required to accept the group’s recommendation, the report could be given some consideration by policymakers because the study group was created by Congress in a bipartisan 2019 vote.
Retired Gen. Joseph Dunford, a lead member of the study group, told reporters that instead of setting a timetable for the full U.S. withdrawal, decisions about force levels ought to be linked to conditions on the ground, including progress in peace talks. He said the group’s recommendations have been briefed to Biden administration officials. He said they found it helpful, but he did not elaborate.
The report offered a potential rationale for the U.S. to seek a renegotiation of the May timetable. It said that would be based on the fact that the peace talks agreed to in Doha were six months late getting started.
“The Biden administration can make the case that there has been insufficient time for these negotiations to create the hoped-for conditions under which international military forces could leave Afghanistan by May, as envisaged in the Doha agreement,” the report said. “A withdrawal would not only leave America more vulnerable to terrorist threats; it would also have catastrophic effects in Afghanistan and the region that would not be in the interest of any of the key actors, including the Taliban.”
In addition to Dunford, who served as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff during most of Donald Trump’s presidency and previously commanded U.S. and coalition troops in Afghanistan, the group included people with extensive backgrounds in diplomacy, politics, intelligence, counterterrorism and military operations.
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