KABUL (SW) – Improved regional connectivity for trade can serve as the key pull factor to take Afghanistan out of the crisis, a top UN official said on Tuesday.
The UNDP resident representative in Afghanistan, Abdullah Al-Darbari said this addressing a virtual press conference in connection with the launch of ‘Afghanistan: Coronavirus Socio-Economic Impact Assessment’ report here. Responding to a question, improved trade ties is a ‘win-win’ situation for Afghanistan and all of its neighbors. He pledged to continue convincing regional countries on it.
The study suggests that the decline in GDP from global and regional economic effects on Afghanistan may reach 6.25% in 2020 compared to a level of economic activity without the pandemic that was previously predicted to increase by around 3%. The Poverty rate is estimated to increase by around 13 percentage points respectively from 55 percent and 68 percent.
An income support program for 6 months (equal to half of the poverty line) targeting only working age adults or every citizen (e.g. Universal Basic Income) would require respectively 6% to 13% GDP, which is believed to be beyond the reach of government spending capacity.
The paper assesses several scenarios on the COVID-19 impact and potential pathways towards recovery.
Current trends in infection rate refers to “Medium Infection Transmission rate” as defined by the Ministry of Public Health (MoPH), where the costs for addressing the pandemic for additional beds, equipment and personnel may reach almost $250 million according to early estimates (April 2020) though this amount may no longer be adequate given the spread of the virus since then.
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