“Most citizens are pessimistic about Afghanistan’s future”

KABUL(SW):The Aisa Foundation annual survey in Afghanistan indicates that the level of pessimism in the country has swollen to the highest levels in over a decade.

The Asia Foundation carries out a survey each year in Afghanistan on a wide range of issues. The foundation has been active since 2004. This year’s survey (2015) polled 9,586 Afghan citizens, including 50.6% male and 49.4 % female respondents. The report of this survey was released by the officials of Asia Foundation Tuesday.

In 2015, 35.7% of respondents nationwide said their country is moving in the right direction, down from 54.7% in 2014. Overall optimism has decreased across all regions, and is lowest in the Central/Kabul (27.8%) and North West (30.5%) regions. This year, Afghans in Helmand province (62.1%) are the most optimistic about the overall direction of the country, and residents of Kabul province (22.5%) are the least optimistic.

Those who say the country is moving in the right direction cite reasons of reconstruction (31.8%), followed by good security (28.5%). The percentage of respondents citing good government (10.5%) has increased four percentage points since 2014. Among the 57.5% of Afghans who say their country is moving in the wrong direction, the most frequently cited reason is insecurity(44.6%, up six percentage points from 2014), followed by unemployment( 25.4%), corruption in general( 13.0%), a bad economy (12.4%), and bad government (11.4%).

Afghans identified illiteracy (20.4%) and unemployment/lack of job opportunities (11.3%) as the two main problems facing women. In general, men and women point to the same challenges facing Afghan women with the exception of the issue of domestic violence, which is more often mentioned by women (13.0%) than men (8.1%).

In all provinces and also at the national level, unemployment (71.4%) is the most commonly cited problem facing youth. At the national level, this is followed by illiteracy (26.5%), a poor economy (15.9%), lack of higher education opportunities (15.3%), and drug addiction (14.2%). Afghans report general happiness at roughly the same rate in 2015 as in 2014. Afghans in urban areas are significantly more likely to say they are happy compared to residents of rural areas.

Security

• More than two-thirds (67.4%) of Afghans report that they always, often, or sometimes fear for their personal safety, the highest percentage in a decade. This rate is highest in the South West (84.6%) and the South East (81.1%).

• Approximately 18.2% of Afghans say they or a member of their family experienced violence or crime within the past year, up from 15.6% in 2014. The most frequently types of violence or crime are physical attacks, livestock theft, suicide attacks, racketeering or extortion, and murder.

• Using a composite measure of overall confidence, this year’s survey shows higher confidence in the Afghan National Army (ANA)(80.8%) than in the ANP(70.0%). Compared to last year, confidence in the ANA dropped less than a percentage point, down from 81.6% in 2014, while confidence in the ANP dropped three percentage points, down from 73.2% in 2014.

• When asked whether the Afghan government’s efforts to reconcile with the Armed Opposition Groups will help stabilize the country, 62.6% of Afghans say yes, a significant decrease from 72.5% in 2014. The percentage of Afghans who say they have sympathy for Armed Opposition Groups has decreased steadily over the years, from 55.7% in 2009 to 27.5% in 2015

• Afghans report experiencing the highest rates of fear when they encounter the Taliban (92.0%), followed by Western forces (78.5%). They report experiencing the lowest rates of fear when encountering the ANP (45.3%) or ANA (42.2%).

• Of the 74.3% of Afghans who say they have heard of ISIS, approximately half (54.2%) also say the group poses a current or future threat to the security of their district.

Economic Growth and Employment

• More Afghans say that over the past year the financial situation of their household has grown worse (29.7%), rather than better (21.0%); a remaining 49.3% say their situation is unchanged.

• More than half of respondents (55.4%) say that employment opportunities for their household are worse this year compared to last year, while 36.5% say they are the same, and 7.6% say they are better.

• Education is critical to Afghanistan’s economic and social development, yet 54.5% of respondents report having no formal or home schooling, with a significant gender gap (37.8% of men compared to 69.3% of women). On average, 67.8% of respondents report satisfaction with the quality of education for children in their area. Afghans in urban areas (80.1%) are more likely to say they are satisfied than people in rural areas (63.7%). Satisfaction with education has decreased in all regions in 2015 compared to 2014. Afghans in the Central/Kabul region (77.9% down from 87.1%) are the most likely to report satisfaction with education for children. Overall, the majority of respondents in all but four provinces report being somewhat or very satisfied with children’s education. Satisfaction is lowest in Nooristan (41.4%), Ghor (47.8%), and Farah (48.5%) provinces.

• Overall, 49.1% of respondents say they are somewhat or very satisfied with their access to clinics and hospitals, and 42.4% report satisfaction with their access to medicine. Among rural Afghans, just 44.3% of respondents are satisfied with clinics and hospitals in their area, while 38.3% are satisfied with access to medicine. In contrast, a majority of urban Afghans are satisfied with clinics and hospitals (63.5%) and availability of medicine (54.6%). Many (26.7%) Afghans say that their family’s health is worse this year than last year.

• Starting in 2011, the survey has asked respondents if they would leave Afghanistan if given the opportunity. This year, 39.9% of Afghans say yes, an increase from 33.8% in 2011, while 57.9% say no. Afghans most likely to say yes live in the Central/Kabul (47.4%) and West (44.2%) regions; those least likely live in the South West (26.2%).

Governance

• Respondents report a sharp decline in their satisfaction with nearly all types of government institutions. The proportion of Afghans who say 10 Afghanistan in 2015 that the national government is doing a good job has fallen from 75.3% in 2014 to 57.8% in 2015. Satisfaction with the performance of provincial, municipal, and district governments has also declined. The percentage of Afghans who say the municipal government is doing a good job decreased from 61.0% in 2014 to 47.2% in 2015, a record low. Reported confidence in various public officials also decreased. Afghans report less confidence in parliament this year (42.4%) compared to last year (51.0%), and also less confidence in their own member of parliament (from 51.5% in 2014 to 42.9% in 2015). By comparison, confidence in the media (66.6%) and in religious leaders (64.3%) is much higher.

• Confidence in the Independent Election Commission dropped nearly in half over the past year, from 66.4% in 2014 to 36.4% in 2015.

• Despite government efforts to curb corruption, 89.9% of Afghans say that corruption is a problem in their daily lives, the highest percentage reported in a decade, with 61.1% saying it is a major problem and 28.8% saying it is a minor problem. Helmand (84.8%) and Kabul (81.3%) are the two provinces where the highest proportion of residents say that corruption is a major problem, and Panjshir (11.0%) is the lowest.

• Since 2007 there has been a slow but steady increase in the reported usage of state courts for dispute resolution services. However, Afghans approach a range of formal and informal actors for dispute resolution, depending upon the dispute or problem. For problems involving land or water, respondents most frequently say they would go to local elders of the shura (47.0% and 24.4% of respondents, respectively). For family problems, they most frequently say they would ask friends and family for assistance (29.9% of respondents). For problems with healthcare, respondents most frequently say would approach formal authorities, with 30.3% citing government departments and 10.5% saying the district authorities.

Political Participation

• In the 2014 survey, which was conducted immediately after the presidential runoff election, Afghans reported a comparatively low level of fear while voting (45.8%). This year (a non-election year) the percentage has risen to 55.6%, a rate that approaches the highest previously recorded (59.5% in 2010).

• Fear while voting ranges from a low of 32.2% in the Central/Hazarajat region to a high of 68.7% in the South West region. Like fear while voting, the percentage of Afghans who say they would experience fear while participating in a peaceful demonstration (69.1%) increased slightly compared to 2014.

• The percentage of Afghans who say they are satisfied with the democratic process in Afghanistan (57.2%) has declined sharply since 2014 (73.1%), marking the lowest percentage of support in a decade.

• Most Afghans (62.8%) say that religious scholars should be involved in politics. In all regions, the percentage of residents who support mixing religion and politics declined in 2015 compared to 2014 (64.9%).

Access to Information

• Radio remains the most widely used mean of obtaining news and information in Afghanistan (75.7%), followed by television (61.6%), mobile phones (50.3%), the mosque (48.3%), and community shuras (37.4%). Over time, reliance on television and the internet for information has gradually increased.

• Approximately one-fifth (21.0%) of respondents nationwide report having someone in their household who has access to the internet. Internet use continues to grow. In 2013, 3.2% said they use the internet for news and information. This year, 9.6% say the same.

Women

• Overall, 47.0% of Afghans who have taken a case to the state courts agree that the state courts treat men and women equally. Notably more women (51.1%) than men (43.1%) say that there is equal treatment of men and women by the state courts.

• Afghans (80.5%) disagree with the practice of baad, where a daughter is given to another party as a penalty or payment for some offense. Fewer, but still a majority (64.7%), disagree with the practice of baddal, the exchange of daughters between families for marriage. In both cases, the human rights concern is that the daughters may be forced to marry without their consent. Meanwhile, 87.8% of respondents agree that a daughter is entitled to part of her deceased father’s inheritance (miras), a right guaranteed by Islamic law.

• Over a third (35.1%) of Afghans say that the burqa (a full-body covering) is the most appropriate public dress for women, followed by 27.7% who say the niqab (a veil that covers the full face, with the exception of the eyes). Only 1.2% of Afghans say it is appropriate for a woman to be unveiled in public.

• Among an array of leadership positions, Afghans are most likely to agree that a woman should be allowed to sit on a community development council (74.4%) and least likely to agree that a woman can run for president (52.9%). A majority of Afghans agree that women should be eligible to serve as a government minister or cabinet member (58.5%), as a governor of a province (57.6%), or chief executive officer of a large company (56.3%). However, support for the idea of equal representation of men and women in political leadership positions has been steadily declining, from 51.1% in 2008 to 43.6% in 2015.

A majority of Afghans (78.2%) say they agree that women should have the same educational opportunities as men. At the same time, there has been a measurable decrease in the level of support for gender equality in education between 2006 (58.5%) and 2015 (37.8%). Most Afghans (93.6%) are either strongly or somewhat supportive of women’s equal access to education in Islamic madrasas, in primary school (84.5%), in high school (82.8%), and in university in a women’s home province (73.8%). Respondents are less supportive of education opportunities that involve studying outside a women’s home province (48.0%) or abroad (35.5%).

ENDS