LONDON (SW): Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, has hinted in its latest report that signs of converging interests between regional actors offer some hope for improved stability in Afghanistan.
This non-profit, non-governmental organization based in London however, has warned that stability in this war-torn country ultimately depend on a political settlement that includes an accommodation between the Afghan government and the Taliban.
Dr. Gareth Price, Senior Research Fellow, Asia Program has authored the report titled “Afghanistan and Its Neighbors: Forging Regional Engagement”
It said following the political transition to a new presidency and Western troop drawdown in 2014, there may now be more space for regional involvement in the country. That the Afghan state has proven more resilient than anticipated in the face of recent political and security challenges may be helpful in this respect.
In the past, efforts to forge a regional approach to Afghanistan have been complicated by neighbors’ perceptions of its problems as peripheral to other challenges and concerns, the report noted, adding Pakistan, for example, subordinates its relationship with Afghanistan to its foreign policy objectives with respect to India.
This may be changing, however, it added.
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In regard to China, Gareth has argued that prospects for collective engagement vis-à-vis Afghanistan remain generally poor, but China’s increasing diplomatic activity could have a positive impact given the common interests between China and the West in stability in Afghanistan.
In particular, China’s influence over Pakistan – still the most important regional actor for Afghanistan’s stability – could encourage the latter to play a more constructive role, for example by supporting dialogue between the Taliban and the Afghan government, it said.
In eyes of the author, as a long-standing ally of Pakistan, China is in a position to encourage the latter to promote engagement between the Afghan Taliban and the Afghan government. More broadly, it may be better placed economically than Western countries to exert influence.
China’s pledge in November 2014 of $42 billion in investment in Pakistan – increased to $46 billion by some estimates during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Pakistan in April 2015 – suggests such a process may already be under way, the report viewed.
In suggested that India’s poor relationship with Pakistan makes New Delhi unable to lead a political process in Afghanistan.
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